An analysis by Mu Shu on U.S. elite perspectives regarding Sino-American relations
Ivo Daalder, former U.S. Ambassador to NATO and senior fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center, issued a stark warning in an August 1 article: “In the competition between China and the United States, China is winning—and America is systematically dismantling its own advantages.”
📊 China’s Ascendancy: The Hard Evidence
- Economic Dominance:
- 70% of countries now trade more with China than the U.S.
- Over half of these nations conduct twice as much trade with China vs. the U.S.
- Daalder quotes Trump: “America is a department store where almost everything is made in China.”
- Tech Supremacy:
- Leadership in: EVs/batteries, robotics, quantum communications, renewables
- Critical Shift: 20 years ago, the U.S. led in 60 of 64 key technologies (defense, energy, biotech). Today, China leads in 57 of 64.
- AI Race: Microsoft AI executives privately warn that China’s DeepSeek may surpass OpenAI’s most advanced models.
- Rare Earth Stranglehold:
- Controls 50% of global reserves, 70% of mining, 90% of refining capacity
- Forces U.S. retreat from chip/tariff escalations
💥 How America Is Self-Sabotaging
- Alienating Allies:
- Imposing 15%+ tariffs on partners (Canada, EU, Japan)
- Demanding territorial concessions (e.g., Arctic claims vs. Denmark)
- Result: Allies reduce military/economic ties; “The U.S. has allies, China has customers.”
- Gutting Innovation:
- 33% cut to federal research funding
- Ideological bans on grants to top universities
- Restrictive immigration policies for foreign scholars
- 75% of U.S. scientists now consider leaving (Nature poll)
- Daalder’s Verdict:“This isn’t shooting yourself in the foot—it’s aiming at the head. Unless reversed, not only China but others will surpass us.”
⚖️ The Path Forward
Daalder urges immediate action to:
- Restore research investment and talent pipelines
- Rebuild alliance trust through equitable partnerships
- Develop a coherent industrial strategy—not tariffs
“Six months ago, China’s victory seemed improbable. Today, it’s inevitable unless America changes course.”