U.S. stocks closed mixed on July 28:
- Dow Jones: Fell 0.14% to 44,837.56
- S&P 500: Rose 0.02% to 6,389.77 (6th straight record close)
- Nasdaq: Gained 0.33% to 21,178.58 (14th all-time high this month, making July its best month since December 1999)14
Sector Highlights
✅ Gainers:
- Tech: Super Micro Computer surged >10%, AMD +4%, Tesla +3%, Nvidia/Broadcom/Qualcomm >1%
- Semiconductors & Energy: ASML/KLA +2%, Nabors Industries +6%
❌ Decliners:
- Precious Metals: U.S. Gold Corp (-3%), Pan American Silver (-2%)
- China ADRs: Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index fell 0.69%; iQiyi (-3%), Bilibili (-2%), NIO/Baidu/Li Auto/PDD (-1%)
Key Asset Movements
- CNH: Offshore yuan weakened to 7.1819/USD (-140 pts)
- Commodities: Gold -0.65% ($3,314/oz), WTI crude +2.38% ($66.71/barrel)7
- Crypto: Bitcoin futures +0.94% ($119k), Ethereum futures +2.41% ($3,819)
The “Super Week” Ahead: Four Catalysts in Focus
1️⃣ Tech Earnings Tsunami
- Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple to report amid revived AI enthusiasm after Alphabet’s capex boost58.
- Risk: Daniel Skelly (Morgan Stanley) warns of “complacency” as volatility hits February lows, with tariff impacts still uncertain7.
2️⃣ Fed Meeting (July 30-31)
- Rate Decision: 96.9% probability of unchanged rates (CME FedWatch)6.
- Political Pressure: Trump publicly demanded rate cuts (“The U.S. would do even better with lower rates”)39.
- Analyst View: CITIC Securities expects no July cut due to resilient jobs data and looming tariff-driven inflation.
3️⃣ Jobs & Inflation Data
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug 2): To gauge labor market strength after June’s surprise 147K job gains14.
- PCE Inflation (Jul 31): Critical for Fed policy; June core PCE fell to 2.5% YoY, but tariff pass-through risks loom7.
4️⃣ Fed Independence Concerns
- Trump’s unprecedented Fed visit (July 24) escalated fears of political interference in monetary policy36.
- Market Impact: Analysts warn damaged credibility could trigger “triple sell-off” (stocks, bonds, dollar) and push 10-year yields higher69.
Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism
- Short-term: S&P 500 may rise 12% to 7,200 in 12 months (Morgan Stanley), fueled by earnings resilience and tariff truces with EU/Japan14.
- Risks:
- Fed credibility crisis threatening dollar reserve status6.
- “Meme stock” frenzy (e.g., MediPharm Labs +260% in 5 days) signaling speculative excess7.
“This week embodies both a trader’s dream and nightmare—extreme opportunities come with extreme volatility.”
— Freedom Capital Markets Strategist