Edited by Du Yu
According to China Fund News, on August 1, legendary investor Jim Rogers (Jim Rogers) stated at the “Global Chinese Wealth Management and Succession” summit held by Noah Holdings in Singapore that he currently holds stocks in only two countries globally, one of which is China, he has cleared all US stocks. He believes that the next US economic crisis will be the most severe in his life.
Jim Rogers Image source: reporter Kong Zesun
Jim Rogers stated that he holds stocks in multiple industries in China, particularly optimistic about the prospects of the tourism industry. “All industries in China have potential, and the tourism industry especially. For centuries, few Chinese people traveled. Now, Chinese people can travel abroad. They are eager to see the world, and foreigners also want to understand China. The tourism and hotel industries have excellent prospects.”
Jim Rogers remarked on the massive changes in China over the past few decades. “In 1984, when I first visited China, I saw a world completely different from what it is today. China will be the most important country in the 21st century, and it already is in many areas. People should ensure that their children and grandchildren learn Mandarin to prepare for the future world.”
Regarding asset allocation, Jim Rogers stated that he holds gold and silver. Historical experience shows that gold and silver have always been safe havens during economic crises. Considering that gold prices have reached a record high, he is not currently buying more gold. However, silver is undervalued compared to historical levels, and he is buying silver. He further stated that, if gold falls, he will buy more gold.
Jim Rogers was born in 1942 and is a legendary investor and traveler. In 1970, he co-founded Quantum Fund with George Soros. From 1973 to 1980, Quantum Fund achieved a cumulative return of 42,000%, while the S&P 500 index rose by approximately 47% during the same period. He founded the Rogers International Commodity Index in 1998. In the following decade, the index surged fourfold, while the S&P 500 index gained about 40% in the same period. Additionally, he traveled around the world on a motorcycle and set multiple Guinness World Records.
Jim Rogers expressed deep concerns about the U.S. debt issue, stating, “Most people turn a blind eye to the U.S. debt problem, and this will lead to severe consequences.”
Regarding the argument that since most U.S. debt is denominated in U.S. dollars, the likelihood of default is limited, Jim Rogers countered that the U.S. may not always remain in a leadership position. Once its leadership is no longer assured, concerns about its debt issue will become prominent. Jim Rogers noted that people once believed the British dominance would never change, and thus dismissed their debt problem as insignificant. History proved them wrong.
Currently, Jim Rogers holds a pessimistic view of the U.S. stock market prospects. He stated, “Since 2009, the U.S. stock market has been on a strong uptrend, experiencing the longest bull market in history. Washington claims this time is different, that the bull market will never end. The next U.S. economic crisis will be the most severe one in my lifetime. The prosperity period has been unusual, and the subsequent recession will also be unusual.” He further pointed out that for a long time, the Federal Reserve printed money excessively, once even pushing interest rates to historic lows. However, this could not last. “When everyone is excited, it’s usually the time to be worried.”
Jim Rogers explains why he still holds a large amount of US dollars, as people will seek safe havens during the next economic crisis. Although he doesn’t believe the US dollar is a safe haven, many will think so. He hopes to sell the US dollars at that time.
Due to US tariff policies and July employment data far below expectations. As of the close of trading on August 1 local time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 542.4 points, a decline of 1.23%; the S&P 500 index fell by 1.60%, recorded its largest single-day decline since May; the Nasdaq index dropped by 2.24%, marking its largest decline since April. The US stock market lost over $1 trillion in market value.
According to CCTV News, data released by the US Department of Labor on August 1 showed that in July, the US non-farm sector added 73,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%. Meanwhile, the non-farm employment data for May and June were significantly downward revised. Specifically, the May non-farm employment additions were reduced from the previously reported 144,000 to just 19,000; the June figure was adjusted down from the previously reported 147,000 to 14,000.
Experts say that the uncertainty brought by the US government’s tariff policies has led to increased cautious sentiment among American companies, and the labor market is rapidly deteriorating.
Economists warn that chaotic tariff policies, immigration restrictions, and federal government layoffs could further suppress U.S. economic growth. These data send a stronger signal: the U.S. labor market is not just “mildly slowing” but “急速刹车,” or triggering concerns about a new round of recession.
Comprehensive from CGTN News, China Fund News, and market public data
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