On August 4 Eastern Time, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released implementation rules for President Trump’s revised “reciprocal tariffs” executive order.
According to the latest CBP announcement, imported goods from the 69 countries and regions listed in Annex I of Trump’s executive order signed last week will officially face “reciprocal tariffs” of 10% to 41% starting at 00:00 Eastern Time on August 7, 2025.
Beyond “reciprocal tariffs,” the U.S. will impose additional duties on its largest trading partners: 25% on Mexico and Canada, and 35% on others. Notably, while Brazil qualifies for the lowest tier (10%), the U.S. will levy an extra 40% tariff on Brazil starting August 6 — bringing the total to 50% — as pressure to halt judicial investigations against former President Bolsonaro.
No Further Delays Expected
Though Trump twice postponed the “reciprocal tariffs” since announcing them in April, further delays are unlikely this time.
Per a CCTV News report on August 4, U.S. Trade Representative Greer stated that Trump’s new tariffs are “largely finalized” and won’t be adjusted in current negotiations. These include:
- 35% on Canadian goods
- 50% on Brazilian goods
- 25% on Indian goods
- 39% on Swiss goods
Consumers Will Bear the Burden
Initially, many companies absorbed tariff costs to maintain market share. For example, Japanese automakers (28.3% of U.S.-bound exports) kept prices stable through mid-2024. Bank of Japan data show auto export prices to North America fell 17.7% from March to May, indicating firms bore the costs alone.
But signs now point to consumers footing the bill as corporate resilience wanes. Retail giants like Walmart, toymakers Mattel and Hasbro, and P&G (producer of detergent, diapers, and toilet paper) warned of price hikes. P&G plans a 2.5% average increase on a quarter of its U.S. products starting August.
The upcoming “reciprocal tariffs” could force further price rises. Yale University’s Budget Lab projects:
- Short-term inflation spike of 1.8%
- Average U.S. household loss: $2,400 (≈¥17,200) in 2025
Sector-Specific Impacts
Goods heavily reliant on imports face steeper hikes:
| Product | Short-Term Increase | Long-Term Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Footwear | 40% | 19% |
| Apparel | 38% | 17% |
| Computers & Electronics | 18.2% | 7.7% |
Richard Westenberger, CFO of U.S. children’s wear maker Carter’s, stated on July 25: “We won’t accept lower margins due to tariffs. If this becomes permanent, we must pass costs to consumers.”
CNN cited Commerce Department data showing U.S. computer prices rose nearly 5% year-on-year in June, preempting tariffs.
Yale’s Budget Lab also warned that tariffs on upstream resources could indirectly raise prices of unaffected goods through supply chains.
Broader Economic Warnings
Beyond inflation, Yale projects:
- Average effective U.S. tariff rate to hit 18.3% (highest since 1934, vs. 2.4% pre-2025)
- GDP growth to drop 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025–2026
- Unemployment to rise 0.3% by end-2025, 0.7% by end-2026
Ernie Tedeschi, Economics Director at Yale’s Budget Lab, noted a 1.8% price surge may seem “trivial,” but it nearly doubles the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
On July 30, Fed Chair Powell acknowledged tariffs already affect some prices, estimating 30–40% of core inflation stems from tariffs. He warned impacts could be “transitory” or trigger “more persistent” inflation.
The World Holds Its Breath
All eyes are on August 7 — the day new U.S. tariffs take effect.